BTS Favored to Win Song of the Year at 2026 MTV VMAs, Predictions Show

BTS is the front-runner to win Song of the Year at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards, according to a leading U.S. awards prediction platform. The group is nominated for the top prize with "SWIM," the title track from its fifth full-length album "ARIRANG."

Gold Derby, a U.S. site that tracks awards predictions, has BTS leading the Song of the Year race with 52.0 percent support. RAYE follows at 22.86 percent, Ella Langley at 9.71 percent, and HUNTR/X at 6.29 percent. BTS is an even bigger favorite in the Best K-POP category, drawing 78.62 percent of the projected vote.

Data-driven forecasts tell a different story. Vibrate, a music analytics company that weighs streaming, YouTube, radio, and playlist performance, ranks HUNTR/X's "Golden" first with a score of 84.5. Olivia Dean's "Man I Need" comes in at 79.9, followed by Ella Langley's "Choosin' Texas" at 79.6. The numbers suggest the field is more competitive than the fan-vote projections indicate.

BTS has landed in three categories overall. Song of the Year and Best K-POP were announced on Aug.18. Best Group, a social category, was added when a second wave of nominees was revealed later that month. The Song of the Year field pits seven acts against one another, including Ella Langley, HUNTR/X, Madonna and Sabrina Carpenter, Olivia Dean, PinkPantheress and Zara Larsson, and RAYE.

K-POP acts are well represented across the ceremony. Setting aside KATSEYE and the animated project vocal group HUNTR/X, K-POP-related nominations total 19 across the categories. In the Best Group category, which features eight acts, half the field is K-POP: BTS, BLACKPINK, CORTIS, and KATSEYE.

Solo artists have also earned multiple nominations. BLACKPINK's Lisa is up for four awards with "Dream," including Best K-POP, Best Pop, Best Cinematography, and Best Editing. KATSEYE also picked up four nominations, in Best K-POP, Best Choreography, Best Group, and Song of Summer.

BLACKPINK's Jisoo is nominated for Best Visual Effects for "Eyes Closed," her collaboration with pop star ZAYN. Jennie earned a Song of Summer nomination for "Dracula" with Tame Impala. LE SSERAFIM is up for Best K-POP with "SPAGHETTI," which features J-Hope. CORTIS scored three nominations, including Best New Artist, a major category open to artists across genres.

U.S. outlet Cosmopolitan noted after the nominations that BTS was left out of the Artist of the Year field, calling the group's nomination spread narrow given the impact of its full-group return. People reported that Lisa plans to give the first televised live performance of her new song "SaWaDiKa" during the show.

The 2026 MTV VMAs will be held on Sept. 27 at the Peacock Theater in Los Angeles.